Some scary, Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations…

Some scary Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations…

Destroyed home - Sabhung 2015In emergencies, projections from rough data is dangerous, and I report this with a grain of salt. Sindhupalchowk district (population around 287,798 in 2011), one of the districts hardest hit by the earthquake, has 79 “village development committees” as geographic and political communities. Each VDC has 9 wards. In Mankha, our field coordinator Hiramaya and the principal of Mankha school Keshav Parajuli report the following figures for 7 of the nine wards:
number of homeless families: 630
number of deaths 18
number of injuries 7
So, you could calculate total homeless 630 divided by 7 wards = 90
90 x 9 wards = 810
projected total homeless in Mankha VDC
810 households x 79 wards in Sindhupalchowk = 63,990 households
63,990 households x 4.5 per household = 287,955 people homeless…which is pretty much everyone in the district. This is crude calculation, but it ties in with the report that over 95% of homes were destroyed.

Keith Frausto